So $launchcoin just increased the token supply by 33%, from 1m -> 1.33m tokens. Yes, every holder just got diluted and on paper that's bad. But zoom out, here's why I'm still bullish on @believeapp 👇 Let's first look at the team incentive. Before, they had none. The team didn't own any of their own supply. Of every crypto project you know that has been successful, there has always been basic alignment. The team now owns 25% of the supply, locked for 1 year, vested over 3 more. This means: - No instant unlocks - No mercenary dumping - 4 years of skin in the game Don't get me wrong, this isn't perfect. The bad: - Every holder's slice just got 33% smaller without being consulted before. Should there have been a DAO vote? Possibly... - Trust from the community in the team got worse. This is the second rebrand of the token. What's stopping them from doing the same again? - Execution risk. It's now more pivotal than ever to deliver. The clock is on. After the two-week migration period, everything rests on the follow-up announcements. - Unlock/dilution FUD. Holders have already reacted to news quite badly (30% down). Whilst I think the worst is behind us, it could go down a little more as more people see it and react. Ok, now the good! - The team is now finally aligned with the holders! They only win if value accrues to the token. - The lockup just started yesterday AND the product has already found PMF. This is quite a big one. So many projects launch their token with their v1 product release, meaning by the time they find PMF, investors/insiders have already dumped. - There is $40m in cash reserves, with over half suspected to go into buybacks. Let me repeat that. Around $20m is going to be market buying a token sitting at 170m MC. That's over 10% of the supply at current prices. - Finally, the team can get back to the product and start shipping faster. The tech debt has been cleared, and now real execution can happen. This isn't a "token project" anymore. It's a real company with serious capital, and a 4-year roadmap that aligns with holders. This has been dilution with a purpose. To further prove my point, I did some back of the napkin maths for a bearish, moderate, and bullish case. The TLDR: 1. Even in the worst-case scenario, you have a nearly x3 in token price from current prices ($0.20). 2. The moderate scenario implies a x10 multiple of $60m revenue (very achievable since they have already made $40m in less than 6/7 months) to have $0.60 per token. 3. The bullish scenario implies a x15 multiple of $100m revenue (again this isn't crazy. It's a x2.5 increase in revenue and many crypto companies have a FDV of x20-x50, not x15). Token price here is $1.50. Conclusion People often hear "dilution" and immediately think "value destruction", but every startup raise will always dilute early holders. Nobody complains when the project then x10's. You can own 1% of a 100m project, or 0.75% of a 1b project. Which would you prefer? So yeah, your slice got smaller, but the pie just got bigger. The oven just got upgraded and the head chef @pasternak and his team just signed a 4-year lock-in 🥧