And yet you’re all bearish
The Week Ahead Mon: *Hong Kong financial summit from 3 to 5 Nov.; Goldman’s Solomon, Morgan Stanley’s Ted and BlackRock’s Larry & Citadel’s Griffin will speak *U.S. Gov shutdown enters its 34th day (On Track to be longest in history) *Saylor buys 397 Bitcoin *U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI *Palantir Earnings Tue: *U.S. court will hear arguments for Sam Bankman-Fried’s appeal (a new trial or reversal of conviction) at 10am ET; If the panel of judges gets deeply involved with the hearing that may be a sign that it is considering whether to order a new trial OR if hearing is short & quick means court affirming the conviction *AMD, Super Micro Earnings Wed: *U.S. Treasury quarterly refunding: Treasury (likely keeping guidance unchanged) *U.S. October ADP employment report, ISM Services PMI *US Supreme Court hears arguments on the legality of about 60% of Trump’s tariffs (IEEPA) *Robinhood, arm, qualcomm earnings Thu: *Tesla shareholders will vote on Musk’s $1 Trillion pay package Fri: China Gold Reserves this week TBA/Whole Week: Worldwide Oct. services & PMIs, U.S. Gov data expected to be delayed due to the shutdown, All eyes will also be on whether U.S. lawmakers can agree to end the shutdown, & Investors will be looking for any evidence of weakness in the labor market or evidence that inflation is slowing to increase Dec. rate cut odds which has dropped to 50% from 99% after powell’s presser. ICYMI: ⊷ Earnings Beats Almost Across the Board for Mag 7; S&P 500 Reporting Double-Digit Earnings Growth for 4th Straight Quarter, last time the S&P 500 reported 4 consecutive Q's of double-digit earnings growth was Q1 2021 through Q4 2021. Analysts believe S&P 500 will report double-digit earnings growth in 4 of the next 5 Q's (through Q4 2026) ⊷ There will not be "nuclear explosions," energy secretary says on Trump's call to test weapons ⊷ OpenAI May Target $1 Trillion Valuation in IPO; OpenAI is giving Microsoft a 27% ownership stake worth about $135B, It will also continue to receive 20% of OpenAI’s revenue; OpenAI Made a $12 Billion Loss Last Quarter. ⊷ On Oct. 28, three new crypto spot ETFs began trading in the U.S. markets, In the coming months, more ETFs are expected to target assets that meet the new generic listing standards, potential candidates could include DOGE, BCH, LINK, XLM, AVAX, SHIB, DOT and ADA. ⊷ Bank of Korea May Buy Gold from a medium- to long-term perspective, for the first time in more than a decade ⊷ Buffett’s Berkshire Cash Hits $382 Billion. ⊷ Balancer Hit by $110M Exploit (hacked for 3rd time now); Berachain validators purposefully halt the Berachain network as the core team performs an emergency hard fork to address Balancer V2 related exploits. ⊷ MSFT CEO says "the biggest issue we are now having is not a compute glut, but it's a power. And it's sort of the ability to get the builds done fast enough, close to power. So if you can't do that, you may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that I can't plug in. And in fact, that is my problem today, right? It's not a supply issue of chips. It's actually the fact that I don't have warm shells to plug into"
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