Theo Pendle YT vs Morpho Leverage
[Conclusion]
For short-term points, YT is more efficient,
but for points per dollar, Morpho leverage is better.
[Pendle thBILL YT]
thBILL YT gives 2394 Theo Points until the Nov 27th maturity date for $1.
However, the principal becomes $0 at maturity, with approximately $0.18 in yield accrued by then.
Thus, acquiring 2394 Points for $0.82 loss
an efficiency of roughly 2919 Points / $
[Morpho Leverage]
For Morpho leverage, spinning 10 rounds at LTV 94% with $1 provides roughly 8.2x leverage.
Considering the current borrow yield of 7.05%, you'll pay about 2.7% of the principal = $0.027 in interest by Nov 27th.
And you can earn a total of 344 Theo Points.
In other words, earning 344 points for $0.027
loss, an efficiency of approximately 12,740 Points / $
[Profit Comparison]
‘Assuming Theo Airdrop value at 14% APR’
= FDV $331M / 5% Airdrop basis
YT purchase: 82.1% loss, 87.3% profit
= Total expected ROI 5.2%
Morpho leverage: 2.7% loss, 12.5% profit
= Total expected ROI 9.8%
However, if FDV and airdrop percentage increase here, Pendle becomes significantly more advantageous.
For example, with FDV $660M / 10% airdrop,
the average APR could be set at 56%,
then
Pendle YT would yield ROI 267%
Morpho leverage would yield ROI 40%.
This... I should at least go grab some YT while I can.
However, if TVL increases or TGE extends, the yield naturally decreases.
#NFA #DYOR
@Theo_Network
Theo FDV Projection
Theo is currently an RWA protocol using U.S. Treasury Bills (T-Bills) as its revenue source.
While it plans to handle various RWA assets beyond government bonds, we've projected its FDV based on T-Bills for comparison with other projects at this stage.
[Comparison Based on Investment Funds]
The T-Bill RWA projects include Ondo, Usual, and the recently listed OpenEden.
Expectations for the RWA sector are high.
While Ondo had a high FDV at its TGE,
it has continued to rise, currently reaching $8B. Consequently, Usual and OpenEden also formed very high initial FDVs.
Therefore, the average FDV at TGE for these three projects is calculated as $2.5B.
Even excluding OpenEden due to recent frenzy, it still calculates to $1B.
[Comparison by TVL]
By TVL, it feels a bit more subdued.
Based on TGE, it calculates to approximately $330M.
Theo's Variation
Theo's current TVL is $117M.
Theo's full-scale staking began this August after converting to T-Bills. Since it uses a points-per-dollar system rather than an epoch-based one,
points inflation is also expected to be low.
From this perspective, even if only 5% of $330M is airdropped,
it amounts to $16.5M, yielding roughly a 14% ROI.
The APR will likely vary depending on deposit duration and strategy (Yield Farming, Lending leverage).
Even considering just the 14% APR, it shows quite decent YF/Leverage efficiency alongside the base rate.
I'll cover this in more detail in a future post.
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